Over 1.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 1.5 probability — Monday 4 March 2024
Over 1.5 goals is the safest goals market — you only need two goals in the match. Our prediction model calculates this as the probability of at least 2 total goals (i.e. anything other than a 0–0 or 1–0/0–1 scoreline). Only fixtures with 70%+ probability are shown, giving you the most reliable selections for accumulators.
The model shortlists 14 fixtures on Monday 4 March 2024. Sheffield Utd vs Arsenal sits top on 93% in the Premier League. The shortlist runs from 93% down to 71%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.
Of the 14 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the over 1.5 goals market — 79%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Premier League · England
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Süper Lig · Turkey
Primera División · Chile
Premier Division · Ireland
Süper Lig · Turkey
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Süper Lig · Turkey
Serie A · Italy
Premier Division · Ireland
Premier Division · Ireland
Showing top 14 fixtures by over 1.5 goals probability (≥ 70%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 1.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 1.5 Goals market mean?
Over 1.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 2 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 1.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 1.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 2 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 1.5 Goals on Monday 4 March 2024?
14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Sheffield Utd vs Arsenal at 93% over 1.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 70% or higher over 1.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 1.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.