Drogheda United 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Drogheda United, 1.30 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 51% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.01 xG and Bohemians 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.967 / defence 1.336 | Bohemians attack 0.904 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.218. Data: 38 Drogheda United games / 38 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 25% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 47%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 2.13. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 50% | Bohemians 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 25% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Drogheda United 1.01 / Bohemians 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.967 / def 1.336 | Bohemians attack 0.904 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bohemians xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 25% chance of winning, Bohemians a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.90x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.65
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.48
1.47
Bohemians xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
17.14
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.47 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 19W 22D 31L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (12W 12D 12L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 11W 11D 14L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 19W 22D 31L in their last 72 games (1.10 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.33 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 36% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Bohemians 2-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.01 xG and Bohemians 1.47 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Bohemians attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 25% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 47%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.10 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.