One-Sided Predictions
Biggest mismatches ranked by dominant win probability — Sunday 16 October 2022
These are the day's biggest mismatches — fixtures where the prediction model gives one team a 60%+ win probability. Useful for finding confident accumulator legs, handicap markets, and Asian lines. The favourite can be the home or away side — the model ranks purely on statistical dominance, not venue.
18 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 16 October 2022. Ajax vs Excelsior led the list at 86% in the Eredivisie. The shortlist runs from 86% down to 61%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Eredivisie supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.
Of the 18 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 15 landed the one-sided market — 83%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Serie A · Brazil
Thai League 1 · Thailand
La Liga · Spain
Thai League 1 · Thailand
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Ligue 1 · France
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Challenger Pro League · Belgium
Serie A · Italy
Bundesliga · Austria
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Serie A · Italy
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
2. Bundesliga · Germany
Showing top 18 fixtures where one team has 60%+ win probability. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
One-Sided — common questions
What does the One-Sided market mean?
One-Sided settles on whether a match has a clear statistical favourite. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate one-sided probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The favourite's win probability shown here is the stronger of the two win probabilities, regardless of which side is at home. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for One-Sided on Sunday 16 October 2022?
18 fixtures met the criteria, led by Ajax vs Excelsior at 86% favourite's win probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 60% or higher win probability for one side, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these one-sided predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.