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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Valerenga.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Valerenga 5-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.82 xG and Valerenga 0.88 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.33 / defence 0.76 against Valerenga attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 77% | Draw 14% | Valerenga 9%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 75%, Valerenga 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Valerenga's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.71 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights