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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Viking and Tromso share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking and Tromso finished level at 4-4 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.41 xG and Tromso 1.13 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.31 / defence 0.96 against Tromso attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 66% | Draw 18% | Tromso 16%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Tromso 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Viking 1.92 PPG, Tromso 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights