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Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 3.11 xG and Stromsgodset 1.42 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Viking fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.50 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 1.13 / defence 1.35, drawn from 44/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 71% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 14%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Stromsgodset 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights