Viking 3-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games (0.89 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 1W 1D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.11 PPG across 9 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.89 vs 1.11 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 56% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 56% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.15 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 0.974 / defence 1.166 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.840 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.459. Data: 9 Viking games / 9 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 30% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 75% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 30% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Viking 1.15 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 0.974 / def 1.166 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.840 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking 3 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 30% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Viking (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.84x) against Viking's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.78
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Viking xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Viking and 1.43 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 5L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Viking against 1.11 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Viking's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Viking or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 75%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Viking) and 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Viking's games and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Viking's recent games and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.15 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 30% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 0.89 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.