Viking 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Viking welcome Sandefjord to Lyse Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Viking's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Lyse Arena this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Viking are significantly better at Lyse Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Viking hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Viking winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 65% and Sandefjord 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | Sandefjord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.489 / defence 1.016 | Sandefjord attack 0.907 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Viking games / 36 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 62% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 17%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Sandefjord 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Viking (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 62% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG Viking 2.46 / Sandefjord 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.489 / def 1.016 | Sandefjord attack 0.907 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Viking (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sandefjord xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sandefjord kick off?
Viking vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Viking 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Viking vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sandefjord part of?
Viking vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 62% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Viking and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
Record (6 meetings): Viking 4W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.49) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.88
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Viking xG
Total xG
3.75
1.29
Sandefjord xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
9%
11.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
1%
67.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Viking and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Viking and 1.29 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (17W 14D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.63 points per game from 30 outings (4W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.47 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sandefjord away?
Viking's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.20 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Viking
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 7, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Sandefjord 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sandefjord?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 73%, Sandefjord at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Viking and 63% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Viking's games and 63% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 63% of Sandefjord's.
Do Viking and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.29 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.49 / defence 1.02 against Sandefjord attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 62% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 17%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.