🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Viking (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Sandefjord.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Viking welcome Sandefjord to Lyse Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Viking's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Lyse Arena this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Viking are significantly better at Lyse Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Viking hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Viking winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Viking trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 65% and Sandefjord 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | Sandefjord 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.46 xG and Sandefjord 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.489 / defence 1.016 | Sandefjord attack 0.907 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Viking games / 36 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Viking 62% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 17%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Sandefjord 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Viking (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights