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Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Rosenborg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Rosenborg 2-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.45 xG and Rosenborg 1.25 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against Rosenborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 63% | Draw 19% | Rosenborg 18%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 67%, Rosenborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Rosenborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Viking 2.00 PPG, Rosenborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights