Viking 4-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Viking against 1.10 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–5 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Rosenborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 63% | Rosenborg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.88 xG and Rosenborg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.135 / defence 0.970 | Rosenborg attack 1.040 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.484. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Viking games / 41 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 47% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 3.23. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 47% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Viking 1.88 / Rosenborg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.135 / def 0.970 | Rosenborg attack 1.040 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Viking (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Rosenborg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Rosenborg kick off?
Viking vs Rosenborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Viking 4 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Viking vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Rosenborg part of?
Viking vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 47% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.04x) against Viking's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.47
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Viking xG
Total xG
3.37
1.50
Rosenborg xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Viking and 1.50 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 19L across 60 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Viking against 1.58 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 7D 8L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.92 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Rosenborg away?
Viking's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.73 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
2
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Rosenborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Viking, 73% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Viking and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Viking's games and 73% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Viking and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Rosenborg 4-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.88 xG and Rosenborg 1.50 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 47% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 31%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Rosenborg 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.55 PPG, Rosenborg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.