Viking 2-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Kristiansund BK at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Viking hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Kristiansund BK, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Kristiansund BK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 62% and Kristiansund BK 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 69% | Kristiansund BK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.03 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.203 / defence 1.037 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.781 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Data: 43 Viking games / 14 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 21%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Kristiansund BK 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Kristiansund BK 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Viking 2.03 / Kristiansund BK 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.203 / def 1.037 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.781 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Viking (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kristiansund BK xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Viking 2 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Viking vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 57% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Viking and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Record (5 meetings): Viking 4W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.20x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.63
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Viking xG
Total xG
3.20
1.17
Kristiansund BK xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
3%
35.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Viking and 1.17 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 4D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Viking's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.75 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Viking or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Viking's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Viking
0
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 75%, Kristiansund BK at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Viking) and 50% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Viking's games and 62% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Viking's matches and 50% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Viking and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 2-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.03 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.17 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 57% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 21%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 69%, Kristiansund BK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.