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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KFUM Oslo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat KFUM Oslo 3-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.71 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against KFUM Oslo attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Viking 49% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 27%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights