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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Haugesund 5-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.68 xG and Haugesund 1.32 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.42 / defence 1.21 against Haugesund attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 66% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 17%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights