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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.94 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Ham-Kam attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 57% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 19%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Ham-Kam 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights