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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Bryne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Bryne 5-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.11 xG and Bryne 0.75 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.20 / defence 0.78 against Bryne attack 0.69 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 68% | Draw 20% | Bryne 12%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 76%, Bryne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Bryne's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bryne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights