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Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Brann.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Brann 3-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.59 xG and Brann 1.54 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.12 / defence 0.92 against Brann attack 1.28 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 39% | Draw 24% | Brann 37%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 67%, Brann 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Brann's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Viking 2.00 PPG, Brann 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights