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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Viking.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valerenga beat Viking 3-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.30 xG and Viking 1.56 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Viking attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valerenga 32% | Draw 25% | Viking 43%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Viking 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Viking's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Valerenga winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights