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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Stromsgodset 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valerenga beat Stromsgodset 2-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.10 xG and Stromsgodset 1.34 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Stromsgodset attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valerenga 54% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 24%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Stromsgodset 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valerenga's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights