🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Valerenga 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Molde beat Valerenga 2-3 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.02 xG and Molde 1.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Molde outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Molde attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valerenga 20% | Draw 22% | Molde 58%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Molde 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Molde's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights