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Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valerenga beat Haugesund 3-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.86 xG and Haugesund 1.32 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.87 / defence 1.35 against Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valerenga 50% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 27%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 36%, Haugesund 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valerenga's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Haugesund's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights