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Valerenga and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Valerenga and Fredrikstad drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.60 xG and Fredrikstad 1.55 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.96 / defence 1.37 against Fredrikstad attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valerenga 39% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 37%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 42%, Fredrikstad 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valerenga's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.17 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights