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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Viking cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tromso.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Tromso 1-3 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.67 xG and Viking 1.35 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.97 / defence 0.76 against Viking attack 1.34 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 45% | Draw 24% | Viking 31%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 52%, Viking 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Viking's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tromso (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights