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Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Valerenga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Valerenga 2-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.21 xG and Valerenga 1.14 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Valerenga attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 38% | Draw 28% | Valerenga 34%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Valerenga 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tromso 1.16 PPG, Valerenga 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights