🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Tromso run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.71 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 45% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tromso 1.45 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights