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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Tromso 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kristiansund BK beat Tromso 2-3 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.69 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.93 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 55% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 21%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tromso 1.16 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights