🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Haugesund 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Haugesund 1-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Haugesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights