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Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Tromso 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Tromso 1-2 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.40 xG and Brann 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Brann attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 42% | Draw 28% | Brann 30%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 55%, Brann 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Brann's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights