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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Stromsgodset 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.30 xG and Viking 2.54 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.78 / defence 1.28 against Viking attack 1.41 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 17% | Draw 19% | Viking 64%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 55%, Viking 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Viking's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights