🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Stromsgodset 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Stromsgodset 2-3 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 0.83 xG and Tromso 2.29 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.64 / defence 1.37 against Tromso attack 1.29 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 12% | Draw 18% | Tromso 70%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 48%, Tromso 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Tromso's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.05 PPG, Tromso 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights