🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.44 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.86 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.83 / defence 1.29 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 29% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 53%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.06 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights