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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Stromsgodset.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 2-6 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.43 xG and Sandefjord 1.73 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Sandefjord outscored their 1.73 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Sandefjord attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 44%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 57%, Sandefjord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sandefjord's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.00 PPG, Sandefjord 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights