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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Molde.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stromsgodset beat Molde 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 0.98 xG and Molde 1.90 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Molde landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.69 / defence 1.41 against Molde attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 18% | Draw 23% | Molde 59%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 51%, Molde 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Molde's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights