Stromsgodset 2-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stromsgodset and Mjondalen meet at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 15 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 2W 3D 2L across 7 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stromsgodset have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 1W 2D 0L at Marienlyst Stadion — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games (1.14 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mjondalen have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Mjondalen have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.29 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.14 for Mjondalen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Mjondalen in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 57% versus Mjondalen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 57% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.11 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.903 / defence 0.955 | Mjondalen attack 0.765 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.593. Data: 7 Stromsgodset games / 7 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 37%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Mjondalen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stromsgodset 67% | Mjondalen 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Stromsgodset 1.11 / Mjondalen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.903 / def 0.955 | Mjondalen attack 0.765 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.593 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mjondalen xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 15 July 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Stromsgodset 2 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen part of?
Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 34% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stromsgodset and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.77x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.50
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.27
1.16
Mjondalen xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.16 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stromsgodset, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mjondalen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.14 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Early Season
Mjondalen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Mjondalen away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.67 PPG; Mjondalen away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 3-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Mjondalen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Stromsgodset, 100% for Mjondalen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stromsgodset) and 67% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Stromsgodset's games and 100% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 67% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Mjondalen 2-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.11 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Mjondalen attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 29% | Mjondalen 37%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 57%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.29 PPG, Mjondalen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.