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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.14 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.65 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.99 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 26% | Draw 24% | KFUM Oslo 49%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 55%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.08 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights