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Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stromsgodset beat Haugesund 2-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.52 xG and Haugesund 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.68 / defence 1.34 against Haugesund attack 0.64 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 45% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 30%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 50%, Haugesund 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 0.96 PPG, Haugesund 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights