Stromsgodset 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 40%, yet in-form Ham-Kam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Ham-Kam at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ham-Kam are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Ham-Kam 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Stromsgodset winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 47% versus Ham-Kam 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 42% | Ham-Kam 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.31 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.853 / defence 1.028 | Ham-Kam attack 0.913 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.221. Data: 53 Stromsgodset games / 53 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 40% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 32%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Ham-Kam 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ham-Kam (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Ham-Kam 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 40% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Stromsgodset 1.31 / Ham-Kam 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.853 / def 1.028 | Ham-Kam attack 0.913 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam part of?
Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 40% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.68
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Ham-Kam xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.15 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 9D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.17 PPG from 53 outings (17W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.30 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 12W 4D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.28 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 20W 9D 24L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Ham-Kam away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.54 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 50%, Ham-Kam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stromsgodset) and 58% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 50% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 58% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.31 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Ham-Kam attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 40% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 32%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 42%, Ham-Kam 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.30 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.