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Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stromsgodset.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Stromsgodset 0-3 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.23 xG and Fredrikstad 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Fredrikstad attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 35% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 54%, Fredrikstad 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights