Stromsgodset 0-2 Bryne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Bryne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Bryne in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 5W 2D 3L at Marienlyst Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.98 xG and Bryne 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.874 / defence 1.077 | Bryne attack 0.851 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Bryne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Stromsgodset games / 6 Bryne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 52% | Draw 25% | Bryne 23%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Bryne 4.35. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bryne | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 52% | Draw 25% | Bryne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Stromsgodset 1.98 / Bryne 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.874 / def 1.077 | Bryne attack 0.851 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bryne xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bryne kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bryne kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Bryne?
Stromsgodset 0 - 2 Bryne.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bryne being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bryne part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bryne is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bryne?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 52% chance of winning, Bryne a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bryne?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bryne will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Bryne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bryne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Bryne in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Stromsgodset home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.87) and Bryne's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bryne's attack (0.85x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.04
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.26
1.28
Bryne xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
3%
31.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bryne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bryne expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.28 for Bryne, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bryne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Pre-Season
Bryne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
1
Bryne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bryne?
From 2 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 0, Bryne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bryne last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Bryne 2-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bryne?
Bryne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bryne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bryne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bryne beat Stromsgodset 0-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.98 xG and Bryne 1.28 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Bryne attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 52% | Draw 25% | Bryne 23%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bryne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.