Start 0-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Lillestrom travel to Sør Arena to take on Start. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Start have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sør Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Start) versus 1.40 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Start, 1 for Lillestrom and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Start in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lillestrom in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 58% versus Lillestrom 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 58% | Lillestrom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.28 xG and Lillestrom 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.808 / defence 1.067 | Lillestrom attack 0.810 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.553. Data: 24 Start games / 24 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 35% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 38%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Lillestrom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Start 40% | Lillestrom 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 35% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Start 1.28 / Lillestrom 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.808 / def 1.067 | Lillestrom attack 0.810 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lillestrom xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Lillestrom kick off?
Start vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Lillestrom?
Start 0 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Start vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Lillestrom part of?
Start vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Start a 35% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Start and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Start and Lillestrom in?
Start (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Start's attack rating (0.81) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.72
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Start xG
Total xG
2.62
1.34
Lillestrom xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Start and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Start and 1.34 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Start's recent record stands at 5W 4D 15L from 24 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 9L across 24 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Start have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 6W 2D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Start are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.46 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Start have gone 5W 4D 15L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.25 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Start
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Lillestrom?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Start 0-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Start and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 50%, Lillestrom 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Start) and 33% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 42%; Lillestrom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Start's recent matches and 25% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Start vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Start's recent games and 33% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Start and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Start 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Start 0-1 at Sør Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.28 xG and Lillestrom 1.34 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Start fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Lillestrom attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 35% | Draw 27% | Lillestrom 38%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 58%, Lillestrom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.