Stabaek 0-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stabaek at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 5 July 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Stabaek have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Eliteserien appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nadderud Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rosenborg have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Stabaek's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Rosenborg's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 40% versus Rosenborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stabaek 40% | Rosenborg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.14 xG and Rosenborg 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.898 / defence 0.701 | Rosenborg attack 0.788 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.528. Stabaek's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 5 Stabaek games / 5 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 42% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 27%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 0% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 42% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Stabaek 1.14 / Rosenborg 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.898 / def 0.701 | Rosenborg attack 0.788 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Rosenborg xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 5 July 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Stabaek 0 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Stabaek vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Rosenborg part of?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 42% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stabaek and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.79x) against Stabaek's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
42%
2.36
31%
3.27
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Stabaek xG
Total xG
1.98
0.84
Rosenborg xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Stabaek and 0.84 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stabaek, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rosenborg's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Rosenborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stabaek are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rosenborg.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 60%.
Defensively: Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Early Season
Rosenborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Stabaek or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 0-3 on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Rosenborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 40% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Rosenborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 60% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 40% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stabaek 0-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.14 xG and Rosenborg 0.84 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.90 / defence 0.70 against Rosenborg attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 42% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 27%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 40%, Rosenborg 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.