Stabaek 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 24 August 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Brann (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Stabaek against 1.10 for Brann. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 57% and Brann 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 57% | Brann 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.16 xG and Brann 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.721 / defence 0.981 | Brann attack 0.755 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.387. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Stabaek games / 14 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 39% | Draw 29% | Brann 32%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Brann 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 29% | Brann 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 39% | Draw 29% | Brann 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stabaek 1.16 / Brann 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.721 / def 0.981 | Brann attack 0.755 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Brann xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Brann kick off?
Stabaek vs Brann kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 24 August 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Stabaek 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Stabaek vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Brann part of?
Stabaek vs Brann is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 39% chance of winning, Brann a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stabaek and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Brann in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Brann (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.72) and Brann's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.76x) against Stabaek's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.43
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.19
1.03
Brann xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.03 for Brann, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 4W 6D 4L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 5W 3D 6L from 14 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Stabaek against 1.29 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.29 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Brann in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Brann have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.29 PPG; Brann away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Brann have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 4-1 on 16 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
2
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Brann have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 29%, Brann 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Stabaek) and 71% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 43% of games; Brann in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Stabaek's recent matches and 57% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Stabaek's recent games and 71% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Brann tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Brann in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Stabaek 0-2 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.16 xG and Brann 1.03 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Brann attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 39% | Draw 29% | Brann 32%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 57%, Brann 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.29 PPG, Brann 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.