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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stromsgodset beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 xG and Stromsgodset 1.67 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Stromsgodset attack 1.26 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 31% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 45%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Stromsgodset 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights