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Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Sandefjord 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 xG and Sandefjord 1.40 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 36%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Sandefjord 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Sandefjord's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 PPG, Sandefjord 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights