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Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 xG and Rosenborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Rosenborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Rosenborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights