Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Lillestrom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.56 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Sarpsborg 08 FF. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lillestrom (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 4 for Lillestrom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–4 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% versus Lillestrom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Lillestrom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 xG and Lillestrom 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / defence 0.821 | Lillestrom attack 0.749 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 18 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 25%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Lillestrom 4.00. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Lillestrom 22% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 / Lillestrom 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / def 0.821 | Lillestrom attack 0.749 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lillestrom xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 47% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
Record (9 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 4W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.75x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.51
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.19
0.87
Lillestrom xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.87 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 5D 7L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.44 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Lillestrom away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.75 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Lillestrom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, Lillestrom 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 12% for Lillestrom.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 50%; Lillestrom in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 12% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 12% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.