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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kristiansund BK beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.94 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.46 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 28%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Kristiansund BK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights