Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 1.60 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 for Kristiansund BK and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% and Kristiansund BK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% | Kristiansund BK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.990 / defence 1.217 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.623 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.262. Data: 51 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 19 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Kristiansund BK 4.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Kristiansund BK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 / Kristiansund BK 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.990 / def 1.217 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.623 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kristiansund BK xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 50% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.99x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.83
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.45
0.96
Kristiansund BK xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.96 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 5D 9L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.24 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.10 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 40% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 40% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.62 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%, Kristiansund BK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.