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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat KFUM Oslo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.68 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.34 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 31% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 44%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, KFUM Oslo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.25 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights