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Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 3-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 xG and Haugesund 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Haugesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 16%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 61%, Haugesund 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Haugesund's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights