Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Haugesund 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% and Haugesund 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% | Haugesund 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.000 / defence 1.171 | Haugesund attack 0.977 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.367. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 48 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 34%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Haugesund 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 / Haugesund 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.000 / def 1.171 | Haugesund attack 0.977 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Haugesund xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 44% chance of winning, Haugesund a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.00) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.43
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.37
1.56
Haugesund xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.56 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 18W 9D 21L from 48 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 26L across 48 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.31 PPG, Haugesund on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 11W 3D 10L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 4W 6D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 9D 21L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 14W 8D 26L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.50 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 75%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.56 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 34%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%, Haugesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31 PPG, Haugesund 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.